32 Olympic Hours in Canada - Part 1

In February 2010, I spent 32 hours in Canada at the Vancouver Olympics. I will remember it forever, but incase the details get fuzzy, I thought I better document it. Team Canada beat the USA in the gold medal hockey game on a overtime goal by Sidney Crosby and the country went crazy. I went to watch a hockey game, but ended up with an experience that meant much much more.

Pre-Trip

I wanted to take the family up to Vancouver for the Winter Olympics, but I just didn’t get my act together. Jason was freshman baseball player at SI, Rachel was busy at school, Steven was just 6, so we just didn’t make it happen. But I still harbored the idea that I could make it up there. If the Canadians could make a run in hockey, I will try to talk Bev into going with me.

Team Canada started slowly, lost to the US in the preliminary round and did not even get a bye into the qualifying round. But the team rounded into shape, beat Germany easily in the qualification round and then hammered a very good Russian Team 7-3 to make it to the semifinals. At the same time Sweden was upset by Slovakia, so Canada would be huge favorites to make it to the gold medal game.

I made a plan. I checked the flights from SFO to YVR and started to scope tickets. I had a buddy staying in Vancouver, who had offered his living room floor as accommodations, so there was a chance I could pull this off.

I checked with Bev and while she was initially game for this epic adventure, there were hurdles. We would have to find some place for three kids; we would have to belly up for about $8K for tickets and she didn’t share my enthusiasm for sleeping on someone’s floor. In the end Bev felt those hurdles were too high, but she says “You can go by yourself”. Really?!!! Going with Bev would be way better, but a solo effort would also work. I thought about it for 2 minutes and then made the decision. A solo mission, it would be. If Team Canada would win on Friday night, I would jump a plane on Saturday and see them play for the gold on Sunday.

Friday night - February 26

We are huge favorites. I am making my plans, but I don’t want to jinx anything, so I do not book any travel or buy the ticket.

Canada takes 3-0 lead over Slovakia! There is no way we can lose a three goal lead to them, is there? So I book a plane ticket to Vancouver and I begin perusing the online marketplaces to get the gold medal game ticket. But then the unthinkable happens, Slovakia scores once; then twice; the game is close. Team Canada goes into a defensive shell and the Slovaks buzz the Canadian net. I can’t believe it, we are about to blow this lead. The trip is imperiled!!!  But somehow we hold on, Canada wins 3-2. We are going for gold and I am heading to Vancouver.

Saturday - February 27

I awake early to finalize the Olympic plan. I try to enlist a few others to join, but they are faint of heart or wallet...so this trip is back to a solo effort. 

My friends Scott Goodhew and Vic Burt give me G2 on the Vancouver situation and point the way to the ticket. VANOC Fan to fan exchange is the best source for tickets.  Twenty three rows up in the corner behind  Canadian Goal- $3000. Pricey, but its a once in a life time opportunity and I don’t hesitate to hit “Buy”.

I am on a 8pm flight, I will get there about midnight, connect with my buddy Scott and be ready for the game.

Jason had baseball, Rachel had basketball on Saturday. I do my fatherly duties, but my heart is not in it, I can only think Team Canada.

I pack the bags. I don't need much for a 32 hour trip.  I have a lot of the requisite red and white - shirts, hats, sweatshirts. They all get packed. I pause and look at my Team Canada ‘72 Paul Henderson replica jersey. Its autographed and a collectors item. It’s not something you wear, but then I figure that its been gathering dust for 10 years in the closet and the decision is easy. Ryan Miller is one tough nut and we need any "Henderson karma" that the jersey may bring.

I go to the United Airlines website at about 3pm and it won’t let me check in. I start to sweat. Wait, I have made a huge mistake! Somehow I booked the 8am flight and not the 8pm flight! Yikes, the trip is again in peril.  I check the websites I can still make the 8pm flight, but here are only first class seats left and they are $1600. This is not a good sign.

I call United. I am on hold forever and have a full sweat going!

United airlines comes through with a solution! Unbelievably, United airlines takes pity on my stupidity. Not sure how it happened, but we are back on. Financial damage is limited to a re-booking fee. I am happy, but a little shaken up. A surgical solo mission to a gold medal hockey game needs more focus. I can't afford any more mistakes, there is no margin for error. 

I head to airport early because I am freaked out about the booking mistake. I have checked the confirmation and flight time about 100 times, then I jump in cab and I am off. 

Traffic jam and accident on the 101 and we are stopped!! I can't believe this, I have time, but my fears are not rational. I start issuing instructions to the cab driver to drive on the shoulder. I offer him the money to pay for ticket if we get caught. He looks at me like I am a madman, but just as we get into it, we see the accident and realize it not too bad. We proceed as planned. I make the flight and settle into the seat. Plane ride is smooth and I land in Vancouver at 11:00pm. Airport has had a huge facelift and looks great.

I go to customs and get the usual dour and serious agent. Here is the exchange:

Customs Agent: "Canadian Citizen?"

Me: "Yes"

Customs Agent: "US Resident?"

Me: "Yes"

Customs Agent: How long will you be in Canada?

Me: "Just one day. Just for the game."

Customs Agent: ( Does not look up.) "Who you cheering for?"

Me: "Canada, sir. No question about that!"

Agent: "I will let you in then...Go Canada Go!" (He even cracks a smile)

Me: "Go Canada Go"

I remember why I love Canada. The smile is a great omen. These agents never smile or make small talk, but this is Canada and THIS IS HOCKEY.  Everyone knows how big this is. There are no rules. Go Canada Go. It's the first time I hear it on the trip and I will hear it another million times. On this day, if you meet a stranger on the street, you don't say "hello". You don't say “how are you.” You say “Go Canada Go.”

12:00 Midnight February 27

Cabbie gets me downtown to Yaletown where I will meet Scott. Something is happening out there. I expected the city to be a party, but not this big. Every bar is lined up and a lot of people are just drinking in the streets. Everyone is in red and white and Canadian flags are everywhere. I roll down the back window of the cab and hear: “Go Canada Go.” Its a chant. The game is still 13 hours away, but the city is clearly ready.

I meet Scott at his rented apartment and he has a Molson Canadian ready for me. Nice touch. Scott’s wife Beth who I haven’t really seen to in 20 years and always considered me a bad influence, surprises me and suggests we hit the bars.

12:30 We get a beer at a local bar/restaurant. The real bars are too jammed to get in. We watch curling highlights (not kidding) and Kevin Martin from Canada gets the gold. Most everyone else in the place seems to have been there all night or maybe all day and all night. Amazing how drunk people look when you are on your second beer.

3:00am: Back at the apartment, I need to get some rest, but the anticipation of the game and its implications keep me awake. I replay the big moments in Canadian International hockey and reflect on its importance to the country. The 1972 Summit Series is 38 years ago, but it is still vivid in the country’s memory. I recall the Gretzky -Lemiuex goal at Copps Coliseum in 1987.  I  make a list of the great hockey legends of all time: The Rocket, Howe, Hull, Beliveau, Orr, Esposito, Lafleur, Bossy, Gretzky. Lemiuex. I settle for those as my top ten. I know there are Russians that belong on this list too…Kharlamov, Fetisov, Tretiak, Federov, maybe or maybe not? Should Jagr make the list…Stasny? Fosberg? I conclude that they should not…I mean I don’t have Messier of Coffey on my great Canadian list. I think about Americans that should be on the list and settle that Mike Modano would be the only one who could come close. And lets face it, he couldn’t carry Gretzky’s jockstrap.

 GAME DAY

7:00 am Awake and ready to go. I grab the maps and plot the morning: Canadian Breakfast, a locak newspaper and a Canadian beer. I need someplace with the right feel, then get down towards Hockey Canada Place and maybe a few more beer before game time. Scott says security is tight and lines long, so get there early.

8:00 am The city is awake and jammed already. Every bar is lined up 500 people long, Every guy is wearing a team Canada jersey. Every woman is in red and there are enough people with face and body paint to approximate a Monday Night Football game in Green Bay. On Granville street, a group of guys have an awesome game of street hockey going. Real nets, goalies with pads and masks…every one in red or white. Nothing looks more fun than that.

8:30 Breakfast spots are limited since every place is jammed, but I find a place and order the eggs and bacon. 
I devour the newspaper which has about 20 pages of game analysis. Every table is full with people wearing Team Canada jerseys. Most are replicas from this year, but there are lots of older versions too. My 1972 Henderson jersey is clearly the throwback style and with the autograph...it is certainly drawing many envious glances.  I am not sure  if the younger ones get it, but if they are over 45 they meet my eye, tap their chest or nod….they all know that the 1972 series can never be beat. As important as today is, it can never carry the import of Game 8 of the Summit Series.

9:30 Head to Arena. No sense looking for a bar, every one is lined up for blocks Just head down there and drink in the pre-game atmosphere. Security is tight and you need to circumnavigate the globe to get to the entrance, but when I get there I see that I am not alone. If you have a ticket, you are there early. Its too important to miss even a second of pre-game experience.

10:15 A bigger street hockey game is going just outside the entrance. This one is different. The police are playing with the pick up guys. Its cops versus guys in Team Canada jerseys. Not sure if they are on duty, but what the hell…its hilarious.

10:20 The ticket scalpers are out, but they are trying to buy them and not sell. I don’t think there will be many available today. Beside the scalpers, I see a man holding a sign above his head. It reads…” Our Game, Our Gold”.

It’s preprinted and it seems that his message is consistent with the mood in Canada today. Its not reserved or polite, it’s confident, and cocky. Perhaps its more than that, its entitled. It is our right to this game. And while it may be an entitled message, I don’t take this is a negative thing. It a right we have earned. A right earned by cradling and loving the game for so long. A right earned by fathers making ice rinks in the backyard. A right earned by mothers making hot chocolate for the boys so that they can stay outside and skate a little longer. A right earned by hundreds of 5 am practices. It’s a right earned because hockey is our predominate sport. Our best athletes don’t decide between football, baseball, basketball and hockey. They play hockey first and foremost. Sure we produce the occasional Jason Bay, Justin Morneau or  Steve Nash, but they are the needles in our haystacks of hockey players.  I think about the sign: ”Our Game, Our gold”  and think that it is "Our Game"...He is right about that and if there is any justice in the world today then it will also “Our Gold”.

10:30 – Head to gates. Looks like the Super Bowl. Perimeter security is about ½ mile from arena. Lines, frisks and scanners. I guess it has come to this. There were no scanners in 1972. The girl taking the tickets looks very young. I ask her how old she is and she tells me 19. She doesn't look  that old, but I do the mental math. That means she was born in 1991. Not only was she not alive for the epic Russian battles of the 70's, she wasn't even alive when Gretzky and Lemiuex combined on that masterpiece in 1987.

10:45 In arena now. They are selling 50/50 tickets just like they were raising money at a peewee hockey tournament. Only in Canada. Not sure who gets the money, but they are promising that the prize will likely be $50K to the winner. No one cares, they buy the tickets because its fun and reminds of their days in cold rinks as boys. No one wants $50K today. We want a win.

11:00 I check out the seat location. Its going to be good. In the corner just to right of the south end goal. I look up at the level 300 and am glad I spring for the extra cash to be lower. Quality is important today.

11:10 I grab a beer and look around. Not much to see. Fans are streaming in. If the city was 90% dressed in red and white then the arena has taken it up to 95%. I see an occasional USA blue but not many. I get a t-shirt and a new Canada hat to kill some time. They are auctioning hockey memorabilia here..some good stuff…but one pieces stands out.  A picture of Howe, Gretzky and Lemiuex walking down a snow covered lane. Hockey Legends. Hockey Royalty. I think about what other troika is so revered and can only come up with Washington, Lincoln, Roosevelt.

11:35  Back to the seats for warmups. Team USA is out first, a couple of boos, but not really. There is no animosity towards Team USA. They are not the villains. But in hockey, they are Robin to our Batman.

Team Canada hits the ice and the crowd goes wild. They come to the ice with strength, size and speed. You can’t help but be impressed, indeed awed. These are the best of the best that Canada has to offer. They are professionals, each of them are millionaires now and win or lose they will head back to mansions and a life of luxury. But none of that matters now, they are wearing the Maple Leaf today and defending one thing that every Canadian is taught from birth…"We are the best at hockey."

11:45. The warm up continues. I watch the goaltenders. It is the position I played since the age of 8. I know the position best and while I haven’t played in 15 years, it is in my soul and I know it well. I watch USA’s Ryan Miller and I know what he is feeling. He is the hot goalie. Confidence courses through his veins right now. He may be the best in the game right now and clearly he has been the best in this tournament. His hands and feet are very fast. His butterfly position perfect. He gets there quick and covers the entire bottom of the net. His hands, especially his glove hand are low and covers even more. His fundamentals are awesome. More importantly, he knows he is hot and the Canadians know it too. He may be in their heads already, they may try to make the shot too perfect and miss in the process. Teams playing a hot goalie often make the extra pass and are afraid to shoot until they have a clear cut advantage and in that quest they give up good scoring opportunities. Miller knows all this and he is ready as they come. 

On the other end, I watch Luongo. He is huge, tall with with incredibly long arms. He reminds me of Ken Dryden who was the first big and tall goalie. Luongo looks good in warm ups too. But something seems not right about him. When he exits the net to let Brodeur take some shots, he bends over and almost doubles over. He does this repeatedly, like he is going to throw up. I ask the guy next to me, who is a Canuck’s fan if this is normal and he doesn’t know. It's got to be the way he deals with the pressure and I am not sure if this is his normal routine or whether today’s monumental game is getting to him. I know a little of the pressure that he is under. Every goalie does. We know two things for sure. If a goalie plays poorly, his team will almost certainly lose. On the other hand Luongo and all goaltenders know that if he plays brilliantly, this team will almost certainly win; And therein lies the crushing pressure of this position. Take the normal pressure, add the fact that Miller has been playing great; add the expectations of a nation and I can certainly imagine why he is doubled over. I hope he is ok.  If he does not play well, it may still be our game, but is will be their gold.

12:00 . The warm ups are over and they resurface the ice. I talk to my neighbors in the seats next to me. To my right are three people who drove down from Kelowna. A husband, his pregnant wife and her father. She is eight months pregnant and they tell me that they are thinking of calling the child Lou, after Roberto Loungo. Geesh...I hope they are just kidding. They are Canucks' fans and learned hockey people. To my right are two guys in Russian hockey jerseys . They speak Russian to each other and do not return my attempts to engage them, They wear scowls on their faces when the Canadian fans cheer and I realize they will be pulling for the Americans. At first, I am taken back by this. Russians cheering for Americans? What about the cold war? People cheering against Canada.. the home of the polite? But then I start to feel good about it. It supports our case...Our Game, Our Gold. Americans aren't offended by the brashness of that statement because the USA will never claim hockey as their game, but I am sure that Russia does. We in the Americas know precious little about how Russians feel about their hockey, but I am pretty sure they have spent as many nights skating on outdoor rinks as Canadians and rising early to get some precious icetime. The Russians won't cheer for the Canadians because we are the alpa dog in hockey, not the USA. We drubbed them in the quarterfinals and I only have to think back to 2006 to remember how we felt when the tables were turned. So the surly Russians make me feel good. Its good to be the brash favorite, rather than the polite underdog. They could have sold their tickets for $10K, but they forgo that just to see Canada lose. Its our job to make them regret that decision.

12:10 The ice is resurfaced and the crowd quiets for what is surely the last time. When the players return to ice, it is Canada who comes first and the crowd goes crazy. The arena is blaring the Black Eyed Peas' "I Gotta Feeling". It builds slowly, but by the time the lyrics hit, the crowd is in a frenzy and the Canadian players are whipping around their half of the ice. The Americans come out and whatever noise the Americans make is drowned out by a feverish Canada crowd. The American crowd is led by Vince Vaughn who in a box with about 20 guys wearing blue sweatshirts. They are a blue island in an ocean of red. I have got to  give Vince props - an American invested in hockey. Win or lose, 99% of all American sports fans will be engrossed in college basketball an hour after this game. I get the idea Vince won’t be. He will be pissed if USA loses. He must have some Canadian in him.

Up next : The Game

The NSA is hacking into Google and Yahoo?! If true, this must stop!

The Washington Post  reported yesterday that the the NSA is hacking into Yahoo and Google's private communications links between data centers. If these revelations are true, then it is time for immediate action from the Legislative and Executive branches of the United States government.

In fact, I call on Dianne Feinstein, our California Senator to call for immediate hearing on whether this is in fact true. I am hearing denials from the head of the NSA, but its hard to "take their word for it". Perhaps the Senate  Intelligence Communities are aware of this program, but if our politicians are aware of these programs, then we have a bigger problem.

I spent 8 years of my life at Google and  have spent a big portion of the last decade evangelizing the benefits and the security of the cloud - for personal and business use.  I continue to believe that cloud based services from big companies like Google, Yahoo, Amazon, Apple. Microsoft and others are more secure than private data centers and traditional computing. I believe this because these large internet companies have the resources, skill sets and motivation to hire the best security professionals in the world and devote serious capital to building world class security in the world. But state sponsored hacking is a every bit the equal of these great companies and pose formidable risks.

Today's allegations in the Washington Post are by far the most serious alleged in this year long saga that started with the revelations from Edward Snowden. Lets review what we know about the US government's continued pursuit of data from major internet providers.

1. Government can make requests of internet service providers for data under the usual subpoena process. If the government suspects someone of committing murder, they can go to a judge and get a subpoena for data. The government serves a subpoena to the internet service provider. The internet service provider reviews whether the subpoena complies with the law, determines if it is overly broad then decides to comply or negotiates the amount of data it will hand over. The internet service provider will then notify the end user that their has been a request for data. This is perfectly fine, has plenty of judicial oversight and is generally part of the workings of a very strong democracy.

2. There are a series of US laws (and similar laws in other countries), that allow the government to request data under secret subpoenas. These are subpoenas that are served and compel the data holder to hand over data, but require that the data holder to NOT notify the end user that there was been a request and investigation. The Patriot Act and RICO laws (for investigating organizing crime) are the most notable laws that allow secret subpoenas in the United States. These requests in my mind are more troubling, but until recently they were used less frequently and we had been assured that there was vigilant judicial oversight.

3. In May of this year, it became known that the  NSA had developed a powerful system called PRISM. The Prism program collects stored Internet communications based on demands made to Internet companies under Section 702 of the FISA Amendments Act of 2008. The NSA can use these Prism requests to target communications that were encrypted when they traveled across the Internet backbone, to focus on stored data that telecommunication filtering systems discarded earlier, and to get data that is easier to handle, among other things. This was even more troubling. While on the surface this program may have been a simple extension of the what we thought was happening under the Patriot Act, it has become apparent that this program is larger, more systematic and there appears to be some fast track judicial review that lacks the rigor that we felt was in place under RICO or the Patriot Act. The Snowden allegations caused a great deal of controversy  but the government defended the program as targeted and effective.  They argued that it was stopping terrorism and that they should be trusted with this program and the systematic data request system. there has been little meaningful debate about whether this program should be allowed to stand as is. I am not willing to say that this program should not stand, but I believe more transparency is needed here.

4. Yesterday's allegations go much further. The NSA is apparently just hacking into systems , looking at unencrypted data streams and doing whatever they want with the data. There is no request to internet service providers, no judicial oversight and certainly no notification to end users.  IF TRUE, THIS IS OUTRAGEOUS. THIS IS NOT AN EXTENSION OF EXISTING LAWS. IT IS BROAD BASED SPYING ON EVERY INDIVIDUAL USING INTERNET SERVICES. 

We cannot stand by and allow this to happen. We cannot debate the privacy versus security balance. This is WAY OVER the line. 

Its time for some answers. If this is true, it is time for some serious policy change. 

It's over for Blackberry!

On February 2, 2013, I wrote this blogpost that predicted the Blackberry10 would fail and that this former pioneer of the smartphone market would die a pretty ugly death. Today's announcements from Blackberry are not the official death notice, but it is a notification for the family to come to the hospital to pay their last respects. Here is a quick summary of the news today:

• Revenue was about $1.6B versus an expected $3B. This is a Titanic miss. 
• They sold only 3.7M handsets in the entire quarter. Apple will probably sell 5M handsets this weekend!!!!
• The company has to write off $1B of inventory that it cannot sell. That is MSFT Surface like number!
• The company will shut down its consumer business and try to sustain itself on corporate business.
• The Company is now starting to burn cash and with small stockpile of only $2.6B, they can't last long.

Worse than that, there was no announcement of someone to buy the company and no white knight private equity buyout. In fact, we now know that the company is unsellable. There is nothing really to buy. Let me recap the assets:

• The Smartphone business is worth negative value.  That right,  less than zero. It is unsustainable at this level. The business will continue to lose market share and it will be unable to attract developers to build applications for the BB10 platform. Don't believe the fantasy world that some Chinese manufacturer will buy this business. They all have looked and passed. 
• The BB10 operating system is worth zero. Ask HP. They bought PalmOS for $1B and then shut it down. BB10 can't survive no matter who owns it. iOS and Android have won and Windows phone appears to have taken on the role of the third place money loser. Fourth place is not viable for anyone. 
• Blackberry Enterprise Server. People keep pointing to this like it is an important asset, but the only reason corporations have BES is to manage Blackberries. No Blackberries, no need for BES. Please don't tell me that it can be used to became a good mobile device management platform. There are tons of great solutions in the marketplace today that are better and cheaper than BES.

So what is of value?

• The Patents. I am not an expert in this area. I have heard that they are worth $1B, but that seems low to me. Patents may have declined in value and I cannot judge the quantity or quality of these but this seems low.
• The Blackberry network. This is blackberry's private, reliable and secure network. The problem is that network was designed to carry email and text traffic  Not sure it is much good to carry web traffic, denser data applications or video. That having been said, I think this asset is worth more than zero.
• BBM. This is a good application. It has a very solid following. And Blackberry is about to make this application available on iOS and Android. I am going to download it tomorrow. The BBM platform is broader and deeper than WhatsApp. WhatsApp appears to have a big user advantage. 250M users to 60M. But since BBM is not yet available on iOS and Android, it has not really been a fair fight so far. Rumor is WhatsApp is worth $1B so there is hope for this business.

So the path is pretty clear for the family members who have been called to to the hospital. Here is what you must do:

1. Get a Proper auction scheduled for the patents
2. Pull the plug on the smartphone business and commence an orderly shutdown.
3. Mash the network together with BBM and fight WhatsApp with a deeper cross functional messaging and communication app that can potentially perform better and more securely on the proprietary network. 
4. Do it quickly before you run out of cash.

Its a sad ending for once great company. But being nostalgic never helps in business. It is time to move on. Please invite me to the funeral.

Should the NFL Competition Committee Look into Seahawks Noise Advantage

NFL fans should be pretty pumped up about tonight's Seahawks 49ers game. It pits last years NFC champions versus a great Seattle team. Its a huge NFC West battle and comes with the addition of the Pete Caroll-Jim Harbaugh rivalry plus the Richard Sherman thing.

But strangely, I am not looking forward to the game. Most non Seahawk fans do not enjoy their teams trips to Seattle since the advent of their noise box stadium in 2002. You can look forward to your team committing a bunch of false starts and to struggling on offense because it will not be able to effectively audible at the line of scrimmage. Further you can count on your team being less effective at running the ball because your O-Line will not hear the snap count.

NFC teams have learned to not judge themselves against the Seahawks on the road. CenturyLink field is the equivalent of Tiger and Phil teeing it up on the mini-putt course. I mean who cares which guy is better at the windmill hole or who can most efficiently navigate the clown's mouth.  Lets just get on to the next competition at a real venue.

This is not just pre-game whining by a Niners fan. Here are the stats. Don't mean to go all Nate Silver on you, but the Seahawks have a 10 point home field point differential advantage. The league average is 5 points.

The chart to support this data is below. Seahawks season home point differential is 79.6 points. Since there are 8 home games, their per game advantage is 9.95 points.

Full Article is here.

Every team expects road games to be in a hostile environment and have to tough it out. But Century Link field tips in too far.

Microsoft Recovery Plan. Step 6. Make it Official with Marissa

Microsoft has lost over $12B in its online division since it started. If you add the aQuantinve $6B write down, you have $18B of losses. Wow!!! There is a certainly a case for dumping this division to concentrate in other areas, but I think that is folly.

Microsoft needs to stay in this business. It needs to buy Yahoo and let Marrissa work her product magic to make this a great business. Amateur hour is over, time to step up.

I think Microsoft needs to be in the online business and by extension the Internet advertising business. Here is why:

•      The Consunerization of IT is not a fad. It’s a reality. Great consumer products designed for the consumer are making there way into a core business IT market. Staying in Online allows Microsoft to be part of this trend, not swimming against the tide.
•       Google dominates here. Facebook is second, but I believe Microsoft can be a player in this large growing market and be profitable.
•      In step 2, I recommended that MSFT be a leader in mobile apps. They can’t likely be achieved without staying in the consumer online business.
•     Running Bing and Outlook.com gives them experience building and running massive data centers and huge software systems at a global scale. This knowledge can be applied to their other cloud businesses.

That having been said, Microsoft is a bantam weight in a heavyweight division that features Google playing the role of Muhammad Ali and Facebook playing the role of Joe Frazier. Here is why this deal must finally get done.

·      Market Power. Google does $40B per year in Online Advertising. Facebook does $6.5B. Microsoft does $3.2B. Yahoo does $4.8B. The combined entity will have more market power and be relevant to advertisers.

•       Economies of scale. MSFT lost $1.5B last year here. Yahoo made $1.5B. There are a lot of redundancies that can be eliminated in this combined division can be solidly profitable. Get some merge consolidation experts in there and you will be in good shape.
•       The combined entity has some really nice properties. Bing, Skype, Yahoo Portal, Tumblr plus a lot of good Yahoo Content. If they take my advice in step 2, they could have Dropbox.
•       Executive Skill synergies. Marissa is a kickass product person who is helping change the culture and re-establish Yahoo in Silicon Valley. She can team with some badass Microsoft operators and use Microsoft’s huge cash hoard to compete with the heavyweights here.

Once the deal is done, one more thing needs to get done to make this merger work. Marissa needs to make the trip across Highway 85 to Cupertino. Tim Cook and Apple needs a partner to fight Google. The MicroHoo Internet and mobile applications need to become the default apps on iPhones and iPads. Bing Search, maybe rebranded on iPhones and iPads is a must. 

Microsoft Recovery Plan. Step 5. Win the Connected Car Market and Home Automation market

I am a little less enthusiastic about this series now that Microsoft has bought Nokia. I thought the Microsoft board might be consider a different path, but it now appears that they are committed to a similar course as years past. That having been said, my Dad said "Start what you finish", so here is the next step in my plan to remake Microsoft.

There are two places where computing still sucks. The Car and the Home.

First, the Car market:

There are about 60M cars sold per year Worldwide. There are just over 1B automobiles on the roads today.  The auto industry has made tremendous strides to automate vehicle operations, but the car is still a standalone system that must be connected to the internet and the outside world.

There is a tremendous opportunity to partner with the car companies to develop a connected car that links applications to the telematics of the car to provide a better, safer car that is continuously connected to the internet.

Google has some real big assets here. They have the world’s premier mapping system and are the clear technology leaders in autonomous cars. But it is not clear how or if Google with partner with existing car companies to bring this technology to the market.

Here is what Microsoft can do:

  

• The Ford Sync partnership is a good start and can be built on to broaden the functionality and number of partnerships.
•  I  am not exactly sure what rights to the Navtech maps product were acquired in the Nokia  transaction, but hopefully Microsoft  has broad rights to use the product in cars..
• The former Navtech mapping data and applcication can be used to work with automobile companies to develop geo-aware mobile apps that will be the center of the car of the future. The car manufacturer’s will open up their telematics systems to application development and Microsoft can build applications
• This business is gong to be a hybrid cloud system. The car will not be able to 100% connected to the internet because of wireless limitation, so on board systems will be necessary. Microsoft is good at these hybrid systems and this environment plays to their strengths.
• Lastly, the connected car will need lots of approvals from Government agencies who are concerned that too much technology will distract the driver and compromise safety. Microsoft knows how to work with governments now and with the car companies they can make a connected car that is approved by the regulators. 

There is a lot of work to do here. But car companies need a big technology partner to move their products to the next level. Microsoft could be that partner.

On the Home Front, the opportunity is even bigger

At every tech conference in the past 20 years, some speaker talks about how the Internet connected refrigerator will know when your milk is empty and will then order it for you, If I hear it one more time, I will stick a fork in my eye. We have been talking about home automation for decades. In fact, I think I went to some home of the future display at Disneyworld that was created in the 60’s with GE. But lets face it we are not close to this. Not evenly remotely close.

But we can be. The home’s we live are the least “smart” of all environments . Someone needs to fix this. Microsoft could win this. They need to start winning new categories not playing catch up on ones that you have already lost.

I also think that Microsoft software and services background works well here. Unless we get 1GB Fiber to all homes soon, the home automation market is going to need software and maybe a server in the home. Microsoft could do that and then connect it to its cloud. There are three areas that it would make sense to focus on:

• The entertainment space. You already have Xbox and some great gesture technology. Apple and Google TV are very mediocre. There is still room for a  great device that does entertainment for all in the home. Watch out for Youtube though. It’s Google’s best weapon here. User generated and third party content are a powerful combination. I would not let Netflix stay independent if I were you.
• The Connected appliances – Refrigerator, Stoves, Washer, Dryer  are all possible. But I would start with heating/cooling and lighting. Very valuable to consumers and it would have a huge “green” impact.
•  Home Security. Seriously, I still have keys that let me in my house that do not have a computer chip in them. I spend money for third parties to monitor my house and the video system is standalone and not integrated. Please someone fix this!!

So, don’t despair, you lost the mobile operating system war, but there are lots more categories to re-invent. 

Since you ignored step 1, Try Step 7. Win Wearable computing

Win Wearable computing

I promised to give the Microsoft my humble advice on 7 steps to re-establish themselves as a technical leader. I had only written to step 4 when the Nokia deal was announced. Sorry, I have a day job so the advice comes out slowly. :-). But now that you have ignored step 1, let me skip ahead to step 7 and maybe, just maybe the $7B acquisition will not be a dinosaur mating session.

First if all, for those non-regular readers of this blog, please see my advice on why Microsoft should exit the phone/tablet and windows phone pace. The purchase of Nokia does not change the dynamics of the game. Developers don’t want a third platform and they will not build cutting edge application for your devices. The battle is over and you were not a winner.. You can pour billions of investment into this space and maybe you can win 5-10% of the market. Your prize for that accomplishment will be billons of dollars in losses. It will make the $18B you lost in Microsoft online properties seem like a paper cut.

But there might still be a way to win. Win wearable computing. This market is early. The winners have not been decided. Google Glass, the activity monitors, the soon to be launched watches are real early. Developers have not committed to a platform and they will build to any great device that gains market share.  These applications are not going to be phone/tablet ports, they are going to be new applications that take advantage of the unique nature of wearable devices. They battle for the hearts and minds of wearable developers is just beginning. While we have not heard much from Microsoft or Nokia in this area. I am sure you have resources on this. I would double and triple down here.  Make great wearable devices and applications that that work well with Windows and iOS and Android.

And you are likely in better shape here now that you own Nokia. They have produced some brilliant hardware over the years. Take your best and brightest and put them on this project. Surely they must be frustrated in the current phone/tablet war. I mean how motivating can it be to sit around the Monday phone/tablet staff meeting with the rallying cry; “We can be #3!!!” or “Let’s crush Blackberry!!!”

I was at a recent conference and Gary Vaynerchuck gave the audience this advice: “The biggest mistake you can make is being romantic about the way you have made money in the past” I would suggest to you that Microsoft is being too romantic about it’s past. Its’ idea is to control the operating system, then win the high margin app business on top of it. We understand it!!! You want Windows on PC/Tablets and Phones! It’s a wonderful romantic idea, but is just fantasy!!!! You have lost the phone /tablet space and you can only win if Android/Apple make a huuuuuuuuuuge mistake or that asteroid thing comes through for you.

If you want romance, pull out a copy of “Casablanca” or better yet, pop in a Betamax tape of the Windows95 launch.  But if you want to regain tech leadership, give up on phones/tablets. Win Wearables.

PS – I will go back and cover steps 5 and 6 later this week.