Seven Steps for Microsoft to Regain Tech Leadership

Microsoft without Ballmer and Gates. This seems unthinkable. Its a new era, but Microsoft does not have to become irrelevant. There are seven steps they can take to still be a tech leader. I will give you the steps one day at a time. Feel free to forward them to the incoming CEO.

Step 1: Get Out of the Smartphone and Tablet business.

I mean completely out. Just shut it down.  The tablets, the operating system, the Nokia partnership. Shut it down. Don’t listen to all those people that tell you you have to be in this space because it is the fastest growing segment. I know it is, but Microsoft can’t win, so why invest in this segment. When I say it can’t win, I may be overreaching. Microsoft can win if an asteroid hits Mountainview or Cupertino. But thats about it. Don’t listen to all that crap that  the market is still early and that there is time to recover. The market is not early. Developed countries are at smartphone penetration rates of 50% and more. The market will slow down from here and the winners have been chosen. Developing countries still offer rapid growth, but these markets will require low prices and thin margins. Is that what you want to win, the low margin countries? Don’t worry, you can’t win there either.

Asteroid Strategy?

Not convinced. Do you want another reason to get out the business? Ok, here is the big one. Smartphones and tablets are dependent on developers building apps for them, and no developer want to see a third platform emerge in this space. Let me say that again. NO DEVELOPER WANTS TO SEE A THIRD PLATFORM EMERGE. It is bad enough that they need to develop on iOS and Android and do some modifications to make them fit the various screen sizes. The last thing the development community wants is another platform. So, try as you might, you will never get the cool and new apps on Windows Phone. Uber is a great example. Awesome App and service. Press a button on your iPhone or Android and a town car picks you up. If you have a Windows Phone, you have to use some unofficial app that doesn’t really work. Worse than that. Windows phones don’t get Google’s popular mobile apps. No Google Maps? Yikes. No Native Gmail. Consistent problems with the Youtube app. No Google Search.  Please tell me what idiot buys a phone or tablet that guarantees that they will be a second class citizen on apps.

Still not convinced. Ask yourself this. And be honest. Give me one good reason to buy a Windows phone or Surface tablet over market leaders iOS or Android. ------------------- I can’t think of one. I went to Windows Phone website and it appears you are hanging your hat of some pretty thin differentiation. The Nokia phone takes a slightly better picture...maybe...depending on the conditions. There are some active tile things that some people might like, but I have never had an Android or iPhone user complain about their interfaces. The differentiation is frighteningly thin.  The Surface campaign was a joke. The commercials were nice and all with all that dancing and keyboard snapping. They seemed to say: "It’s Tablet and a PC" because its got a keyboard. Do Microsoft people not realize that you can get a keyboard for an iPAD????

OK, there is one reason that you might buy a Windows Tablet. It can run a full version of Windows Office. But really that is it. And its not enough. Period.

iOS and Android have won this space. If a third platform develops it will be some kind of Android variant, like the Amazon one. It will not be Windows Phone, It will not be Blackberry. There will be Android and iOS and maybe an Android variant. And thats it!

So, I guess the Windows smartphone and tablet strategy is down to the “Asteroid hitting Mountianview or Cupertino” thing. If you have some forecasts that say that is likely, then you are golden. If not, get out. And Get Out Fast.

Stay tuned for Step 2 tomorrow.