Friday, June 13, 2014

Five Steps to making Soccer more Popular in the USA Step One: Make the Net Bigger



Soccer will never be a top tier spectator sport in the USA. I am sorry for all you soccer maniacs. It won’t. Its not is our history. The game has too little offense and insufficient excitement. Don’t kill the messenger. It is just a fact. Soccer will always struggle as a spectator sport.  I don’t care about the new MLS TV deal. The cold hard facts are MLS broadcasts get about 127K viewers. How bad is that? Regular Season Hockey on NBC draws about 500K viewers and that is considered poor. The average NFL regular season game draws 18.7 Million viewers or 150 times greater than soccer. Depressingly, “Here comes Honey Boo Boo” scores up to 2.8M viewers.

Soccer will always sit outside football, baseball, basketball and even hockey. So I am writing this blog to soccer fans and officials, not to beat the big guys, but so it that can beat NASCAR, MMA, Lacrosse and Professional Paintball.

There are five things soccer can easily do. I will write one in each blog post:



Number 1: Make the Net bigger.

Few people are going to watch a game when the Vegas over/under line is 2 total goals for the opening game of the World Cup.  I know my soccer purist buddies will tell me about the “beauty” of a Nil- Nil game, but it won’t make the game easy to watch by the masses. Every major US sport has undertaken rules to increase scoring. We have lower mounds, 3 point shot lines and stringent pass interference rules. The luddites running baseball are even rumored to be juicing the ball up next year to improve scoring. Soccer has an offense problem and there is no denying it.

Here are some stats for my quant friends:

Sport
Average Scoring Plays Per Game
Minutes Per Game
Scoring Play per Minute
Basketball
~50
48
.96
Baseball
4.82
NA
NA
Football TDs +FGs
8.8
60
6.8
Hockey
5.73
60
10.5
Soccer
2.46
90
36.6


The average World Cup game will see less than 2.5 goals and it will take an average of 36.6 minutes of play to see a goal. This will not cut in a Attention Deficit World consuming media at a frenzied pace on smartphones. In the 36 minutes it takes to score a goal, the world will have:

  • Tweeted 10.1M times
  • Completed 150M Google Searches
  • Watched 5 Million hours of YouTube videos
  • Purchased 68 thousand smartphones 


In the last world cup there were eight games, where no goals were scored at all. None! Nil-Nil ties! There are only 64 games, so 12% of all games had no goals scored. Furthermore, there were 16 games that finished 1-0. That’s 24% of all games. Add that up 36% of all games played have 1 goal or fewer scored!!

But here is the most incredible set of stats.  Spain won the tournament. They played 7 games. Surely as the champion, they must have filled the net! But how many goals did they score in 7 games?   They scored 8!!!!! This is not a typo, they scored 8 miserable goals on route to the World Cup! That’s 1.15 a game. They did manage to score 2 goals once. That was against the powerhouse squad from the Honduras. (GDP of 18.2 or about half the GDP of North Dakota).



Something must be done. I am not a expert on the game of soccer and can’t tell them how to tweak the rules, but the easiest thing to do would be to make the net bigger.


I know this seems like a poor idea. The net is already ridiculously large by US Standards. Its 192 square feet already. You can park most RVs in the net. There are apartments in San Francisco that are damn near 192 square feet.  So you can live in a soccer net. You don’t walk up to a soccer net and say, “Hey, we should make this thing bigger”.

Further the net is not relatively larger than a hockey net when you compare to puck/ball size. See stats below:


Sport
Goal Width
Goal Height
Goal Area
Ball/Puck Size
NetSize to Ball/Puck Ratio
Soccer
24 ft.
8 ft.
192 sq. ft.
28 inches
987.4
Hockey
6 ft.
4 ft.
24 sq. ft.
3 inches
1152




So, if the net is already really large and relative to ball/puck size its not out of line, why do I recommend a larger net? BECAUSE THEY STILL DON’T SCORE! Its pretty simple really. I don’t need to go pull anymore Nate Silver on you. Scoring is less than half of hockey and less than a third of football! Make the frickin’ net bigger!


One more thing, I did a Google search for historical size of the soccer net. Turns out they set the size of the net in 1882. That’s 132 years ago! I am pretty sure that goalies have gotten bigger, faster and more athletic since Queen Victoria roamed Windsor Castle. So come on, LETS MAKE THE D*MN NET BIGGER. 

Monday, May 5, 2014

Advice on Advice: What I remembered on my recent trip to Disneyland



The family and I recently took a quick 4 day trip to Disneyland . They had to drag me kicking and screaming. It might be the happiest place on earth for some, but not for me.

The reason I have distaste for Disneyland is that I have always gone there when my kids are young. Despite what every one tells you, young kids are often reduced to exhausted, over stimulated toy buying machines when they visit  “The Mouse”. The second reason I dislike Disney is that I once read some advice about how to handle kids at Disneyland and it was some of the worst advice I have ever read or been given.

Here is the quick story:

Disneyland is a wonderful place and is designed by wonderful people. It also has some of the best marketers and merchandisers in the world. Every attraction, show or ride is carefully supplemented with a well placed “store”. When you get off the Little Mermaid ride, you will find yourself in a well-stocked store filled with Princess costumes, wands, toys and every whatchamacallit in Ariel’s Underwater Grotto. If you stand in line to get an autograph from Snow White, you will be standing in line with kids with Disney purchased autograph books and Cinderella pens. If you drop by the Indiana Jones show, it will inevitably funnel you out where you can pick up a commemorative Harrison Ford hat and lasso.

So here is the advice that I received. In order to combat the Disney merchandisers, you should sit your children down before you go to the park, Tell them how fortunate they are to be at Disneyland. Tell them that is costs a lot of money to come to Disneyland and that they should be very thankful that they are here. Tell them that there are many toys and souvenirs for sale at Disneyland, but there are going to be some rules. Tell them they have a budget of certain dollars or that they are limited to one souvenir. This advice seemed rationale and well reasoned. I gave it a try. Complete Fail.  Not even close.

Here is the problem., Whoever wrote that advice had a) never had kids, b) had kids but had never taken them to Disneyland  or c) had kids well outside two standard deviations of the norm.

Young kids are completely over matched against Disney merchandisers. These merchandisers are outstanding. They have exact replicas of the props from the movies. They are hanging on hooks that are at exact eye height of a 5 or 6 year old child. The store is set up, so that there is no way you can get to the exit without passing he most tempting and expensive souvenirs. The childrens’ still developing brains and associated impulse control are no match versus for Disneyland.  It is Seahawks-Broncos Super Bowl XLVII type matchup!



So here is what is going to happen if you try this advice. Your kids are not going to be able to implement it. You will keep to trying to reason with them and remind them of what you talked about last night and then at some time, there will be a complete child meltdown that includes crying , screaming, and wild body gyrations.

So here is my practical advice. Do not listen to the theory that you will read on line. I suggest you have one of three options.

1 Just buy the stuff. Not all of it, but enough to keep the peace. You can work on your child’s impulse control later when you are not getting ready to stand in a 45 minute line for the Thunder Mountain roller-coaster while sipping a $5 bottled water.

2. Just reconcile yourself to the meltdown. It is happening to a lot of kids there. No need to be embarrassed. Just put them in the stroller and move on.  This is much harder said than done.

3. I never tired this, but I think a blindfold could work. Maybe a Pirates of the Caribbean bandana that must be worn as you exit the rides and shows. They have to put on the blindfold and be carried or wheeled through the toy gauntlet!!!

I am not sure what will work for you, but I can assure you that my practical advice will be much better than the theory I read online.

So,…why I am writing this?  It’s not really to give you parenting advice. It’s to give you Advice on Advice.

Lately, I think we are overwhelmed by business advice: blogs, online articles,  social media, books. Our fiends give us advice,; our investors give us advice, our peers and co-workers give us advice. We hire or employ advisors to give us advice. I think it is too much. Here is my advice on advice: 
  1. Advice is good. Be open to it.. You are not as smart as you think you are.
  2.  Don’t spend too much time getting advice. Its better to actually do something.
  3. Advice from people who have been successful at similar things should be considered heavily.
  4. Advice form people who are not trying to solve similar problems or who are from outside your industry can be considered, but usually that advice has to considered more broadly and less tactically or specifically.
  5. Advice from people, who have not been successful, should be avoided.
  6. Remember the decisions you make are yours to own. So while, you can get advice, in the end you should do what you think is right!
So I “advise” you to read fewer blogs and select your advisors carefully. Seek out people who have done it before, not people who have talked to people who have done it.


And by the way...one more piece of practical advice.: Disneyland is way better when your kids are older.

Wednesday, February 19, 2014

32 Olympic Hours in Canada - Part 3

In February 2010, I spent 32 hours in Canada at the Vancouver Olympics. I will remember it forever, but incase the details get fuzzy, I thought I better document it. Team Canada beat the USA in the gold medal game on a overtime goal but Sidney Crosby and the country went crazy. I went to watch a hockey game, but ended up with an experience that meant much much more.

Here is Part 3 of my story.



Post game party

As I exit the Arena, I can hear the street party in the distance. Many start to turn towards it anxious to join the revelry. But I am not 25 anymore and I seek a different plan. I head to Molson Canadian House - a massive tent that Molson has put up for privileged guests and the hockey elite. It was $1500 to get in to watch the game there, but I figure i must give it a shot.
When I get here security is tight. I try to sneak in with a large crowd , but passes are being checked carefully and I am turned away. I try to scalp a ticket, but someone wants $2000 another guy wants $1500. Thats too much! I can find a street party for less. But the whole thing looks very cool and I regroup to come up with a plan to get in. I start to case the building. 15 minutes later, I become discouraged, the permitter is pretty air tight. Just then, an opportunity jumps right at me. A side door is opened and a guy in a Scott Niedermayer jersey props the door to get a better cell signal.  This is my pass from Ignila. I know I must shoot immediately. I head confidently to the door, skip over a hedge and eyeball the guy at the door. I stride straight in and he gives me a fist pump as I enter the inner sanctum. He pats me on the back and I simply say "Go Canada Go".
I'm in huge white tent. 50 large screen TVS, gourmet buffet, white clothed circular tables, and a huge Molson Canadian bar. I feel a little sheepish like security is going to grab me, but I put on my inner Vic Burt and act like I own the place. Straight to the bar, I go. I am slapping people on their back and high fiving. The game has been over for more than an hour, but the euphoria has not died down, I grab the bartender's attention and see that many people are drinking Bloody Marys. I decide to go with the flow and order one. Extra spicy. But as I ordered it I realize I have almost blown my cover.. There are no Bloody Marys in Canada, its Bloody Caesars with clamato juice. I cringe and the bartender corrects me, but no one moves to seize my passport or hail me a a faux Canadian...so the crisis passes.


I turn to my right and see a familiar face, but I can't quite place it. Could it be? I think it is...Paul freaking Coffey. I am almost sure, I see others gawking and realize that I am right, I introduce myself and we have a chat. He looks like he could play today. Sh*t, if Chelios is coming back, I tell him he should lace them up again.


Man, could this be more perfect? Olympic games. Row 23 in the corner where Crosby scores from. An overtime win. The national anthem. Now free drinks with Paul Coffey. I am in hockey heaven.


I hang in the inner sanctum for an hour or so tossing back Caesars and meeting happy Canadians. I realize I am in the friends and family section of the Molson Canadian house. There are many celebrities in here. It is used as quiet area to eat and drink away from the big party. The big party is in the adjacent tent and I can hear the rock music emanating from he entrance door. But they are checking badges there and I am sadly without one. The inner sanctum is nice, but its pretty calm and genteel and I need to move to the big tent. I befriend some passholders and while we revel in the game recap, I rope them into my plan to get into the party tent. When Paul Coffey enters the big tent, it creates a diversion and I sneak in. I hear someone calling for my pass, but I do not stop. I hit the crowd and there are 5000 or so people screaming and singing to rock music.



The place is wild. Its like a red and white volcano erupted. Everyone is dancing and singing and drinking. Men are high fiving, women are hugging, the dance floor is jammed, the bar is lined up five deep. Beers are $10 but no one cares. People are buying trays full of them. I  try to get to bar, but someone just hands me a beer and thumps on the chest where the Henderson autograph adorns my jersey.
There are huge 100 foot screens showing Olympic highlights. They appear to be rolling a loop of every Canadian gold medal winner and as each appears on screen, the crowd goes crazy. When they show Crosby's goal, the crowd cheers like they saw it for the first time. The Molson Canadian hostesses in tight dresses are there to help anyone and there is a a line of drunken guys swarming over them to get pictures. 
The atmosphere is electric. Its the best party of my life. Every time I go to bar, someone hands me a beer. I meet new friends, I tell them my story and they tell me theirs. We talk hockey, Canada, Vancouver and the Olympics. Its like a family reunion with Team Canada as the theme. Chants frequently breakout. My favorite is "14 gold, 14 gold". Canada wins the gold medal count. A country with with just 35 million people! Its pretty amazing. All the crap about how unCanadian this "Own the Podium" is forgotten now. We have won the most gold medals. The USA wins the total medal count and that in and of itself is pretty impressive. North America has dominated these games.
Later they project the closing ceremony on the big screen and we are all able to watch the ceremony from the comfort of the giant party room. It looks cool, but I am only half interested. The interpretive dance numbers are not really fitting the mood at Molson Canadian house.
They interrupt the closing ceremonies to bring on a special guest. Roberto Luongo comes on stage and does an interview. The crowd goes crazy. Alot of Vancouver people are here and on top of being a hero today, he is their Canuck and while he is taking you can barely hear because the crowd is chanting Lou.


When Luongo leaves, they cut back to the closing ceremony and they are into the speeches. I take a break from the bar to shuffle close to a speaker and listen.
Next time I look up on screen, the CEO of the games is on. Usually this is a boring speech that no one cares about, but I hear something of interest.



He says: "The time has come to say goodbye, to say thank you. And to perhaps compare for a moment the Canada that was, with the Canada that now is. I believe we Canadians tonight are stronger, more united, more in love with our country and more connected with each other than ever before. These Olympic Games have lifted us up. "


"The Canada that was, with the Canada that now is"?! The speech brings a tear to my eye. I wonder whether he is right. I have been in country less than 24 hours, but it certainly seems a different country. Proud, patriotic and at times brash. It has thrown an incredible games and the city and region has shown well. Canadians seems comfortable in their role as hosts, but also winners. The few mistakes are shoved aside and the positive has been focused on. I wonder if the CEO is right, I wonder if these games could help change Canada.  I think that a single event is not likely to make a permanent change, but I think its  a step and it is a positive one. I mean that “Own the Podium thing is something that  I just freaking love. I believe in setting goals high and shooting to reach them. One need not be ashamed  or be viewed as negatively simply because they aspire to the best. Indeed its the opposite, I don't want my kids thinking that they should not strive to be the best. No one is the USA would accept anything else, and I think it is a big step forward for Canada. I hope they double the funding for it.


Michael J. Fox comes on the screen "My name is Mike and I am Canadian. Now I have lived in the States for 30 years but I will always think of Team Canada as my home team....if I am watching the US and Canada play hockey, I am sorry I am wearing the Maple Leaf on my sweater". He says some other stuff, but  I don't hear because the tears are flowing freely from me now. Michael J. Fox has captured my feelings and the feelings of hundreds of thousands of Canadians who live in the USA. We love  our adopted country, but not at the expense of  our native land. We love both countries and we don't want to choose one over another. Canada and the USA are countries of shared values and we are rarely in competition or in dispute. Our similarities, vastly outnumber our differences and as such we don't have to choose. But when it comes to hockey we are competitors and we will always choose Canada, no matter how long we lives stateside. I am not sure why these words touch me so much, but they do. Its been along time since I felt this way about Canada, but I realize now as I stand in party room of 5000 that while you can take the boy out of Canada, but you can't take the Canada out of the boy.


I miss my family badly right now. This had ended up being more than a hockey game. Its been an experience that I want to share with them and I am  suddenly very sad that they didn't come. When Beverly decided not to come, it seemed to makes sense. Given her general hockey interest, the dollar tradeoff seemed an easy one. But now I realize what  a big mistake it was for me to come alone. I didn't come to a hockey game, I  came to a celebration of Canada. This experience has been awesome, but I realize it would have been 100 times better with her. I check my phones. I brought two, but was having serious battery issues. The Nexus One’s battery is dead, too many photos. I didn't fully charge the Blackberry last night, but I turn it on and see that I have enough battery to call home. I call and talk to everyone. They watched the game and are excited. We talk, but I can't convey the experience over the phone. Nonetheless, its good to talk to them. I stop crying, but the emotions and/or the beer are starting to be overwhelming.
By the time I head back inside, the closing ceremonies are over and the band is on stage. It’s a local band called the Odds. Apparently they are very big and the crowd goes crazy. I join in the craziness, but its a little like a News Years Eve party after midnight. Maybe I am too old to party all night long, so I step back and enjoy it. People have hockey sticks on the dance floor and signs are passed around that say "Hockey is Canada's game!."
The band winds down and its time for me to get out of here. Its around midnight and I need to be up at 4am to get to the airport.  People are spilling out on every street. The games are over, but these people don't want to let it end. I roam the streets, grab a slice of pizza and a Big Gulp sized soda. People are offering me beer or drinks, but I just want to talk hockey and Canada.


About 2 am, I check into the hotel. Its a like a travel lodge and the two star rating is clearly generous. There is not much staff at the hotel, but as I slide in the front door, I see a man of Indian descent at the front desk. He flashes me a smile and says "Go Canada Go".

Two hours later, I grab a cab and head back to San Francisco, secure in the knowledge that I have two homes.